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Gun Drone's BS
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Old 07 Aug 2005, 19:19   #11 (permalink)
Kroot Warrior
 
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

the first role has a chance of 2/6 which is 33.333333%, and then of the remaining 66.666666666% u have another 1/3 chance of getting a hit. *so 66.66666666666% x 33.33333333%, which is 22.222222222%. *then u add the 2 together and u have 55.5555555555% *and that is your chance of hitting with the drones guns. *ok now i hope your still with me on this cause im getting alittle confused myself. *so im giving this my best shot.
bs 1 has a 1/6 chance of hitting or 16.666666% * * * * * *
*bs 1 twinlinked adds 13.88888% so it has a 30.55555555% chance
bs 2 has a 2/6 chance or 33.333333% * * * * * * * * * * * * *
bs 2 twinlinked adds 22.222222% so it has a 55.55555555% chance
bs 3 has a 3/6 chance or 50% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
bs 3 twinlinked adds 25% so it has a 75% chance
bs 4 has a 4/6 or 66.6666666% * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
*bs 4 twinlinked adds 22.2222222222% so it has a 88.8888% chance
bs 5 and up has a 5/6 chance or 83.333333% * * * * * * * *
bs 5 twinlinked adds 13.888888888% so it has a 97.22222% chance

hey i think i did all that right please tell me if i did anything wrong. *
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Old 07 Aug 2005, 19:55   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

Good maths, bang on after having scanned your results, there is a sticky on this somewhere actually for reference mentioned by [maCe] earlier on in this thread!

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Old 07 Aug 2005, 21:34   #13 (permalink)
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

Quote:
Originally Posted by [ maCe
link=topic=10274.msg170034#msg170034 date=1123387770]
Hit Percentages

Basically its looking at things statistically.

BS 2 means you hit 2/6 of the time. or miss 2/3 of the time. As you can reroll misses, that means 1/3 of the 1st 2/3 will hit. all with a common denominator..
1st Roll: Hit 3/9 Miss 6/9
2nd Roll(reroll): 1/3 of the 1st rolls misses will hit, that is, 2/9 overall
3/9 + 2/9 = 5/9 = 55%
That one in my post above :\
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Old 08 Aug 2005, 01:11   #14 (permalink)
Shas'Vre
 
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

Quote:
Originally Posted by DireStrike
I calculate it as still 50%. Tell me what's wrong with my logic:

Your first roll is thus:

....

So you have a total of 8 possible outcomes, 4 of which are hits.
a little off logic here: the key is the 1/3 that does hit stay, so only the misses get rerolled, and then 1/3 of the misses hits... this will be a little more than 50% if you get a squad of 8 drones and throw dice around a little bit.... youll get 4 and 5 hits more often than anything else (but you gotta do it like... 36 times (?) to get an statisticly accurate bell curve)

this is why i HATE math, namely the Statistics hard maths: 2 in 6 twice is NOT 4 in 6. 2 in 6 twice is 2 in 6...... twice. period. :
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Old 08 Aug 2005, 01:51   #15 (permalink)
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

sorry bout that mace, i didnt notice that you posted the statistics already. my own mistake.
i thought that i would try out some of my math skills, hope they help others.
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Old 08 Aug 2005, 02:31   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

Ok, as always the best way of resolving a statistics question is to see what actually happens... thanks for clarifying that.

I have always had problems with statistics. Not in that they're hard to do (though they are) but that they are hard to understand. That's the way I do math. I can't memorize the way it works and keep doing that, I have to understand the logic behind why it works that way.

And with statistics, the logic is extremely slippery. It's like a magic eye picture. Even if you are capable of seeing the things, sometimes they just don't work for you. It's like every illusion that can be viewed two ways.

I've had probability discussions before, usually revolving around random number generators. I still think there's something wrong with most of them.
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Old 08 Aug 2005, 06:20   #17 (permalink)
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Default Re: Gun Drone's BS

Quote:
Originally Posted by kroot-commander
sorry bout that mace, i didnt notice that you posted the statistics already. my own mistake.
i thought that i would try out some of my math skills, hope they help others.
Mm thats fine, you explained yours, I just thought it would be too much for people and they could just take my word for it :P

Statistics/Probabilties do get pretty confusing..
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