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SM and Tau Kill Percentage
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 16:06   #1 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Tau have a 10% change of killing a SM.

Tau- .5 (bs) x .66(str vs. t) x .33(SM save) = .1 or 10% chance of a kill

SM- .66(bs) x .66(str vs. t) x .5 (Tau save) = .2 or 20% chance of a kill

I guess this could be fair because Tau cost less than SM but each SM can have up to 10 SM's and Tau can have up to 12 FW's. This means in a normal firefight, SM would probably win? What do you guys think about this? I'm not so sure but I think Tau should have a little more chance of killing SM's but if STR was increased, it would be too unbalanced.

Note- I'm not sure if all my math is correct.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 16:17   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Mike, a better way of looking at it is to compare both Tau and Marines against the same target. For example, compare them both against Marines.

Then, divide their chance to kill by their own point cost:


Tau vs Marine:

.5 x .66 x .33 = .111 / 10 pts = .0111


Marine vs Marine:

.66 x .5 x .33 = .111 / 15 pts = .0074



In this comparison, you can see that Tau are actually better than Marines by a fair bit! Of course, this doesn't take into account the ability to sustain return fire which is where the Marine's higher toughness and better armor balance out the equation... but based on purely offensive shooting capability, Firewarriors are quite a bit better than Marines.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 16:38   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Actually, even when we take armor and toughness into account, Tau still come out on top in points.

A basic Fire Warrior costs 10 points.* A marine costs 15.

300 Fire Warriors vs. 200 Space Marines.


4+* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 3+
150 Fire Warriors hit.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *133 Space Marines hit.

3+* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *3+
100 Fire Warriors wound.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * 89 Space Marines wound.

4+ (from 89)* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *3+ (From 100)
44 Fire Warriors are killed.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * 33 Space Marines are killed.

44 Fire Warriors cost 440 points.* * * * * * * * * 33 Space Marines cost 495 points.

Coupled with their longer maximum range, this means the Fire Warriors are point-for-point more effective than Space Marines.* The only other thing not factored in is leadership, which is dependant on other factors.* Note that all of these numbers are doubled for rapid-fire, which I have left out for the sake of simplicity.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 17:08   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

On a purely shooting standpoint Tau are better yes. But once you factor in close combat :'(
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 17:20   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Just a note on equality and who's better in the fire fight. Tau aren't generally good at standing up to fire fights like marines are, in experience, but math will tell you other wise.

Example: 12 Fire Warriors vs. 8 Space Marines @ Rapid Fire Range; No moral necessary due to each side has their Ethereal or Captain holding moral for them to re-roll - we assume they pass each time. No assault occurs because they're rapid firing there. Both squads cost an equal amount of 120 points.

Do the math and you will find that when the Tau commence the shooting and they return fire back and forth to the last man, the marines die before the last 3 to 4 fire warriors die. The Fire Warriors win the fire fight (and it takes like 4 turns or more!)

However, if the Marines commence the shooting and they return fire back and forth to the last man, the Fire Warriors are punished very easily and up to 4 marines will still be standing at the end of the fight when the last Fire Warrior dies and it takes about 4~5 turns of shooting to do this.

So the Fire Warriors can do well, but only if they're the ones that started firing and take an advantage of cutting down the marines firepower. And in the process the Tau do win, but end up becoming reduced to 1/3rd of their original starting size and do not hold quarters or score anymore as they're under half strength. The marines on the other hand are still at half strength and score when they started the shooting as they severely cripple the Tau's ability to get the upperhand.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 17:50   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Personally I don't think you can easily compare the units mathematically because of the vast differences in how you could equip the marines: 10 SMs vs 12 Tau is one comparison but who plays with 10-man SM squads with nothing but bolters? : Throw a heavy bolter and a plasma gun into that SM troop and their efficiency goes up by quite a bit. You're also not taking into account other vagaries like the effects of ATSKNF - it keeps SMs on the board down to the last man and allows them to fire even their heavy weapons after falling back, neither of which is taken into account by any simple mathematical analysis. I'm all for mathematical comparisons but you really need to be comparing apples to apples (uh-oh, I remember the rail rifle discussion when that phrase last came up ).
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 18:02   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

This is as close to a direct comparison as you can get in 40k.* Mathematically, Tau, specifically Fire Warriors, do seem pretty good.* The fact is though, that both flavors of Marine and Imperial Guard will beat them in a straight-up shootout.* *The only real advantage Tau have is speed.* If you don't factor that in, they will always come up the loser in a statistical comparison.* Space Marines are too cheap for what they can do.* Period.* They are far and away the best troop choice in the game in a list now utterly bloated with options.* It is something I try to take in stride these days.* Dwelling on it doesn't help.* I feel the same way about Chaos in Fantasy.* I play Bretonnians, and just about all that list has is knights and a single war machine.* Chaos has stronger knights and now a stronger war machine.* They also have more magic, stronger characters, cause fear left and right, you name it.* And they don't pay very much for any of it.

GW has never understood that sometimes making small numbers the only weakness of an army doesn't necessarily constitute balance.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 18:57   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

The other thing to consider is the tactical use of a squad in relationship to the army and choices available to it.

Marines are the backbone of the SM army, and there ARE relatively few of them considering without the tac squads, the Marines fall apart pretty fast. If you want them to have any sort of mobility, you probably need them in a Rhino, no cheap option itself.

Look at the cost of a full tactical SM squad decked out with mobility:

10 SMs: 150 points.
Weapons: Varies, but approxamately 15 points if he's going for anti-infantry.
Rhino: +50 points, and can move 6" a turn and has a S4 AP5 A2 weapon, and can't relocate for fire support in the assault phase. 11 front armor
Total of approxamately 215 points.

Now look at the Tau:

12 FWs: 120 points + 80 points for the Devilfish. 12 front armor, has a S5 AP 5 A3 weapon, can move 6" in the assault phase to relocate for fire support, 2 gun drones for hit absorption and fire support, each of which have a 2/3 chance of hitting (twin-linked BS2) at another S5 AP5 weapon.
Total of 200 points.

Tau can rapidly relocate to almost anywhere, and they can immobilize the Rhino if they fire at it. They also get more shots at a higher strength, and a better shield in the form of the Devilfish. They can use the Devilfish to move themselves 12" one turn, disembark, and fire 1 shot at 12" at the Rhino the next turn. If they hit its back armor, they can destroy it outright; if they hit its front armor, they can immobilze it and so on. They get 12 shots to do this.

The Space Marines move slowly, and their basic weapon can't hurt the Devilfish unless they hit its back armor, something which only a VERY LUCKY setup would allow against a good Tau player. They can disembark, and a turn later they can fire their missile launcher to destroy the Devilfish. They get one shot to do this with, and the Dfish has 2 drones to soak up damage. If they don't focus on the Devilfish, it can block for the FWs and they can fire out from under it, and the second turn after disembarking, the one in which the SMs can use the missile launcher, the FWs can lay out about 30 shots (including their fire support) to kill the SMs with. If the SMs gain the upper hand, the FWs can embark and book it 12", firing 5 shots (including drones) as parting shots, out of range of the Bolters if they're positioned properly, while the SMs can only run 6" with 2 parting shots, and can thus still be targetted by the extra 6" range of the FWs. The Dfish can also cross dangerous or impassible terrain if necessary.

The Tau have more mobility, and that means a lot in 40k. The Marines are powerful, but a properly armed FW squad can harass them until the cows come home.

Against Guardsmen, the Ordinance blast is king. Instakill on a wound fired from 72" out on a pie plate; who could ask for more?

Yeah, basic SMs versus basic FWs, the SMs are probably going to win in a slugging match if all you have is a squad on a squad; but when's that ever going to happen? That's what support is for, and the Tau are unrivalled in terms of supporting units.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 19:39   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Well, I just played a game against my friend Dave. We played 160 points, cause I was showing him how to play. I fielded 2 groups of 8 shas'la and he fielded 2 groups of 5 marines. He killed me to a man by turn four and i hadn't killed a single marine.

Math and luck are obviously not the same. Only by playing from experience will you understand how to field an army; no calculator will ever do this for you.
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Old 04 Jun 2005, 19:56   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: SM and Tau Kill Percentage

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ui Veta
Well, I just played a game against my friend Dave. We played 160 points, cause I was showing him how to play. I fielded 2 groups of 8 shas'la and he fielded 2 groups of 5 marines. He killed me to a man by turn four and i hadn't killed a single marine.

Math and luck are obviously not the same. Only by playing from experience will you understand how to field an army; no calculator will ever do this for you.
Proves my final argument. <3 To ya ^_^
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