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Tau Weapon statistics.
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 11:19   #1 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Sweden
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Default Tau Weapon statistics.

I've done some calculations covering most to all of the common weapon - skill combinations in use.

Should provide helpful when cooking up your army, balancing the firepower against expected threats.

Code:
Notes:
* Avg W = Average number of wounds per shooting phase.
* P(0) = Probability of not causing any wound in a shooting phase.
* Only armour saves are accounted for, not cover or invulnerability.
* Flamers, the Airbursting fragmentation projector and Rail gun submunitions are given as
a "per hit" number, since the number of targeted models are unknown.
* For the Cyclic Ion Blaster itís too cumbersome to calculate the P(0) for MEq and TEq.

Breakdown by individual weapon
				GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Weapon (BS 3)		Range	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)
Pulse Rifle		12-24"	0,417	58,3%	0,111	88,9%	0,056	94,4%
			12"	0,833	34,0%	0,222	79,0%	0,111	89,2%
Missile Pod		36"	0,833	34,0%	0,394	68,4%	0,139	86,6%
TL Missile Pod		36"	1,250	14,1%	0,677	49,7%	0,208	80,3%
Plasma rifle		12-24"	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%
			12"	0,833	34,0%	0,833	34,0%	0,833	34,0%
TL Plasma rifle		12-24"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
			12"	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%
Fusion Blaster		12"	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%
TL Fusion Blaster	12"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
Burst cannon		18"	1,250	19,8%	0,333	70,2%	0,167	84,2%
TL Burst cannon		18"	1,875	5,3%	0,500	57,9%	0,250	77,0%
Air bursting frag	G18"	0,667	33,3%	0,167	83,3%	0,083	91,7%
Cyclic Ion blaster	18"	1,250	23,7%	0,556	X	0,486	X
Flamer			Templt	0,667	33,3%	0,167	83,3%	0,083	91,7%
TL Flamer		Templt	0,889	11,1%	0,250	75,0%	0,125	87,5%
SMART System		24"	1,667	11,6%	0,444	62,4%	0,222	79,6%
TL Rail gun		72"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
6x Warriors, rifle	12-30"	2,500	3,9%	0,667	49,3%	0,333	71,0%
			12"	5,00	0,16%	1,333	24,3%	0,667	50,4%
12x Warriors, rifle	12-30"	5,000	0,16%	1,333	24,3%	0,667	50,4%
			12"	10,00	2,4ppm	2,667	5,9%	1,333	25,4%
Rail Rifle		36"	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%	0,069	93,1%
TL Rail Rifle		36Ē	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,104	89,6%
-------------------		GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Weapon (BS 4)		Range	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)
Pulse Rifle		12-24"	0,556	44,4%	0,148	85,2%	0,074	92,6%
			12"	1,111	19,8%	0,296	72,6%	0,148	85,7%
Missile Pod		36"	1,111	19,8%	0,576	56,1%	0,185	82,3%
TL Missile Pod		36"	1,481	6,7%	0,86	38,4%	0,247	76,8%
Plasma rifle		12-24"	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%
			12"	1,111	19,8%	1,111	19,8%	1,111	19,8%
TL Plasma rifle		12-24"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
			12"	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%
Fusion Blaster		12"	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%
TL Fusion Blaster	12"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
Burst cannon		18"	1,667	8,8%	0,444	66,8%	0,222	79,4%
TL Burst cannon		18"	2,202	1,3%	0,587	49,8%	0,294	71,0%
Air bursting frag	G18"	0,667	33,3%	0,167	83,3%	0,083	91,7%
Cyclic Ion blaster	18"	1,667	13,2%	0,741	X	0,648	X
Flamer			Templt	0,667	33,3%	0,167	83,3%	0,083	91,7%
TL Flamer		Templt	0,889	11,1%	0,250	75,0%	0,125	87,5%
SMART System		24"	2,222	3,9%	0,593	52,7%	0,296	73,5%
TL Rail gun		72"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
Rail Rifle		36"	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%	0,093	90,7%
TL Rail Rifle		36"	0,741	25,9%	0,741	25,9%	0,123	87,7%
Ion Cannon		60"	1,667	8,8%	1,667	8,8%	0,278	74,7%
Rail Gun (solid)	72"	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%	0,556	44,4%
Rail Gun (submun)	72"	0,833	16,7%	0,278	72,2%	0,139	86,1%
-------------------		Geq (T3, Sv5+)	Meq (T4, Sv3+)	Teq (T4, Sv2+)
Weapon (BS 5)		Range	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)
Rail Rifle		36"	0,694	39,6%	0,694	39,6%	0,116	88,4%
______________________________________________________________

Breakdown by combinations

Crisis suit combinations:
					GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Configuration (BS 3)		Range	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)	Avg W	P(0)
Burning eye			12-24"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
(Twin Plasma rifle)		12"	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%
Burning eye			12-24"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
(Twin Plasma rifle, array)	12"	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%
Deathrain (TL MP + Array)	36"	1,481	6,7%	0,86	38,4%	0,247	76,8%
Deathrain			12"-36"	1,250	14,1%	0,677	49,7%	0,208	80,3%
(TL Missile pod + Flamer)	Templ	1,917	4,7%	0,844	41,4%	0,291	73,6%
Fireknife			24-36"	0,833	34,0%	0,394	68,4%	0,139	86,6%
(Msl pod, Plasma, Multitr)	12-24"	1,250	19,8%	0,811	39,9%	0,556	50,5%
				12"	1,666	11,6%	1,227	23,3%	0,972	29,4%
Firestorm			18-36"	1,111	19,8%	0,576	56,1%	0,185	82,3%
(Msl pod, Burst can, Array)	18"	1,667	8,8%	0,576	56,1%	0,222	79,4%
Firestorm			18-36"	0,833	34,0%	0,394	68,4%	0,139	86,6%
(Msl pod, Brst can, Multitr)	18"	2,083	6,7%	0,727	48,0%	0,306	72,9%
Firesurge			12-36"	0,833	34,0%	0,394	68,4%	0,139	86,6%
(Msl pod, Fusion bl, Multi)	12"	1,250	19,8%	0,811	39,9%	0,556	50,5%
Helios				12-24"	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%	0,417	58,3%
(Plasma/Fusion/Multitrack)	12"	1,250	19,8%	1,250	19,8%	1,250	19,8%
Sunforge (Twin Fusion blast)	12"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
Sunforge (Twin Fusion, Array)	12"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
------------------------		GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Fire Warriors:
6x Warriors, Pulse rifles	12-30"	2,50	3,9%	0,667	49,3%	0,333	71,0%
				12"	5,00	0,16%	1,333	24,3%	0,667	50,4%
12x Warriors, Pulse rifles	12-30"	5,000	0,16%	1,333	24,3%	0,667	50,4%
				12"	10,00	2,4ppm	2,667	5,9%	1,333	25,4%
------------------------		GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Broadsides:
Broadside			24-72"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
(Rail guns, SMART)		24"	1,667	11,6%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
Broadside			24-72"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
(Rail guns, SMART, Array)	24"	2,222	3,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
Broadside			24-72"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
(Rail guns, SMART, Multitrk)	24"	2,847	1,5%	1,218	19,8%	0,921	27,6%
Broadside			24-72"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
(Rail guns, Plasma rifles)	12-24"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
				12"	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%
Broadside			24-72"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
(RG, Plasma rifles, Array)	12-24"	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%	0,741	24,9%
				12"	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%	1,481	6,7%
Broadside			24-72"	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%	0,625	37,5%
(RG, Plasma rifles, multitrk)	12-24"	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%	1,250	14,1%
				12"	1,875	2,5%	1,875	2,5%	1,875	2,5%
--------------------------		GEq (T3, Sv5+)	MEq (T4, Sv3+)	TEq (T4, Sv2+)
Sniper drone teams:
No marker light			36"	1,251	19,8%	1,251	19,8%	0,207	80,7%
One marker light		36"	1,668	8,8%	1,668	8,8%	0,279	74,6%
Two marker lights		36"	2,082	6,2%	2,082	6,2%	0,348	69,1%
My own reflections:
* I was amazed to see how well the regular warriors stand up here. Even as little as six warriors are as good as or better than a Crisis suit in most cases, when it comes to cheer fire-power.
* The CIB is an amazing piece of equipment! In spite of itís puny power it will spank MEqs and TEqs like few other, thanks to the high rate of fire combined with every sixth hit being a sure (AP1) wound.

Cheers
Olle
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 11:26   #2 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

You lost me
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 11:56   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Yup, Firewarriors are right up there with some of our other offensive big hitters. They're not quite as good as Vespid or Sniper Drones at killing Marines, but they have the advantage of not caring whether their target is in cover.


The killer for Firewarriors is the fact that they completely clash with the VP denial nature of the rest of the Tau army list choices. They just don't weather fire well (poor Toughness and Leadership and mediocre save) and have no way to avoid taking it.

A good way of comparing these statistics a bit more meaningfully is to normalize them either as kills per point or points per kill. I personally prefer kills per point, so Firewarriors score in at 0.0111 Meq kills / point.
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 12:04   #4 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Trick3003, it's quite simple, really.

Example:
Plasma rifle 12-24" 0,417 58,3% 0,417 58,3% 0,417 58,3%
12" 0,833 34,0% 0,833 34,0% 0,833 34,0%
Reads as:
- In the 12-24" range, one plasma rifle will on average cause 0.417 wounds on a GEq type target per shooting phase.
- The probability that it will not cause any wounds at all on the GEq that phase is 58.3%.
- The high power and low AP of the plasma rifle makes for the same result against MEq and TEq targets.
- At closer range, where you get twice the ROF, the average wounding goes up to 0.833 while the no-wound-probability drops to 34%.

As for calculating it on a per-point basis, it's been on my mind, but then I realised it's futile unless you also include survivability.
A large FW team can take for example incoming laser cannon fire much better than a crisis suit team with comparable firepower and points cost, while the suits survive blast weapons better.

Cheers
Olle
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 12:41   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Sorry, Olle, but posting stats is against the rules. I'm not sure if the number-crunching falls into the 'illegal' category but posting the range of a weapon certainly does :-\
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 13:09   #6 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yaifrog
Sorry, Olle, but posting stats is against the rules.
Posting of stats made publicly available by GW isn't.

Just about every data used is available for free on the GW site at
http://uk.games-workshop.com/downloa...-reference.pdf
and
http://uk.games-workshop.com/downloa...ence-sheet.pdf


/Olle
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 13:14   #7 (permalink)
Shas'O
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Ah, good point... still, always good to check. We don't want TO getting sued :-\
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 13:23   #8 (permalink)
Shas'Vre
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Excellent work! This is great stuff for tactics. Class A work! ;D

Cheers
Dangerman
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 16:49   #9 (permalink)
Shas'Vre
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Olle P
As for calculating it on a per-point basis, it's been on my mind, but then I realised it's futile unless you also include survivability.
A large FW team can take for example incoming laser cannon fire much better than a crisis suit team with comparable firepower and points cost, while the suits survive blast weapons better.
I wouldn't say it's futile. You need to exercise some common sense when considering defensibility, but comparing things on a per-point basis is the only way to make sense of the numbers.

Your chart tells me that a Twinlinked Railgun is more likely to kill a Marine than a Pulse Carbine is. If my goal is to kill as many Marines as possible, I might therefore conclude that the best way to do this is to load up on Broadsides. What we're discussing is the difference between effectiveness and efficiency. Just because a Broadside is more effective at killing Marines, doesn't mean it's more efficient. Of course a Broadside is more effective at killing Marines; it should be, since it costs 8x as much!

In order to make this information useful for list building, efficiency is the more important quantity. You need to divide the effectiveness of a unit by its point cost.


For reference, here are some other similar tools that others have developed:

Mighty Qu'in's Mathammer Article

Godhead's Math Spreadsheet

Godhead's Different Math Spreadsheet

Madscientist's C++ Program for Simulating Weapon Rolls

Nightwynd's Graphs for Common Weapon Efficiencies
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"i like to think of playing against my list as being like punching jelly. you put all your effort in but it just moves out of the way and you cause no damage. then your arm is covered in jelly. and the chicks come out and start wrestling in the jelly, and i drink a beer with stone cold steve austin, and we watch the chicks jelly wrestling, and then the slap-bass funk starts wakka chakka wakka wakka woh" -- Spooky, describing Mech Tau

"You can of course make a list that attempts to work via fragility and easy VP donation and Pathfinders fit into that just fine." -- kai
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Old 13 Jul 2007, 20:38   #10 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Tau Weapon statistics.

Well, what really makes it futile is that it would be a clear breech of GW's IP.

The stuff I've published is all publicly and easily available. The point costs of units and weapons aren't...

Cheers
Olle
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