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Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va
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Old 22 Nov 2006, 07:36   #1 (permalink)
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Default Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

I've seen several posts on number crunching which often involve probability and thus, statistics. But has anyone applied economic theory to the tau'va?

essentially what i want to do is take the current number crunching viewpoint and build on it using economics.

This would call for two main parts:

The army itself:
unit by unit statistics and economics, maximizing efficiency.
combinations of units and their maximized potential profit (in VP)
the variations in army point size and use
the variations in mission types/scenarios
the "best" armies overall
The opponent:
which armies are used most often
what to do against them
the dark horse/ least likely opponent
handling the darkhorse with the chosen army

I'll post updates on this from time to time, but anyone else who feels statistically and economically inclined may post about this as well.

keep in mind that we do have to abide by copyright license when referring to data.
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Old 22 Nov 2006, 08:08   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

I've taken several econ course, but there are unquantifiable things. Such as effects of terrain, special rules, what wargear taken, synergies with other units leading to special tactics, infinte different enemy army possiblities.

Best thing I've seen thusfar has been Godheads Army Efficiency Calculotron found here


Other than this are you talking about averaging the chances of encountering certain defensive statline profiles such as the chance of encountering GEQ vs MEQ and then choosing appropriate weapon loadout blends to maximize efficiency?

If that is the case, you will have no data pertaining to how many of each army is played. Plus that number varies from place to place. Really, all one can do with mathammer is compare weapon profiles and efficienies against different defensive profiles (GEQ, MEQ, TEQ etc...). But even the taking into account things like ranges, special rules (like pinning), and survivability of the unit carrying it is nigh immposible to quantify. Especially against a broad range of differernt army builds. That doesn't even begin to scratch the surface either, how do we acertain the value of a weapons ability to kill a certain AV vehicle against its ability to kill infantry? Do we simply assign arbitrary point values? Who's to say that a fusion guns short range and lack of Rapid fire makes it 57% less effective against TEQ than a Plasma Rifle? If you don't take range and Rapid Fire into account STR8 would seem to make the fusion gun better against those termies since it insta kills. Plus how do we add overall effectiveness against infantry to effectiveness against vehicles. AP1 and melts special rules are hard to quantify value especially in light of its short range. And whos to say the Plasma Rifle isn't shooting at rear armor?

So you see there are too many factors to reduce this game to statistics and regression curves. To many pieces of unquantifiable data. If you'd liek to work on quantifying the data we can, I'd start with that spreadsheet calculotron. Anything you wanna add to that, I'll review your math and analysis methods, but in the end, two people could play the same list against each other, get similar dice rolls, and one player could still completely annihilate the other simply by using mor clever tactics and positioning his troops too maximum effect. So in the end, there are things which are better left as an "art" and not a science.
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Old 22 Nov 2006, 21:00   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

Thanks for the post! That army engine looks quite useful and I wouldn't have found it otherwise, so thank you. Now to reply to the rest of your post...

You've made a good argument there, and I do agree that there are some things better left as art, but if we can calculate chance out of the equation as much as possible - or rather, calculate it in the army's favor as much as possible - then perhaps we can make the art of the game a bit more refined.
Your suggestion to quantify some currently unquantifiable data sounds great to me. The question is where to start? Most special rules and templates involve area covered rather than simple linear range, so I feel that many of these special abilities can come down to the area that they cover on the map as a whole.
Once again, thank you for the well thought out post.
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Old 22 Nov 2006, 21:47   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

There's also the issue of looking at the "economy" of what's encountered vs the "economy" of what a given player encounters. I only have to play against 5 different armies on most days and even then, it was only 4 until recently. You might play at a store where everyone is SMurfs or Chaos with virutally no nids... or maybe you play with a group of friends who happen to be 50% nids players. The "economy" on the macro scale is less useful than the micro scale of looking at simply one's own gaming group.
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Old 22 Nov 2006, 22:26   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

are there any other progams like that?
cause i cant use it, i dont have excell
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Old 23 Nov 2006, 00:43   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: Economics, Statistics, and the Tau'va

I believe the best (if somewhat complex) method is simply (well, complexly) applying a full batch of Linear Programming against the rulebook and the Codex vs weighted other Codices...

But then no-one does that as Linear Programming is insanely boring, and yet still not statistics!

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