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Statistic help needed for rifle teams
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Old 10 Jul 2006, 04:30   #1 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Default Statistic help needed for rifle teams

OK, I need the help of one our statistics guys... and maybe a lesson in figuring odds in the 40k universe.

Here's my question:
Would it be better to have 8 rifles or 7 rifles with a +1 BS? Against MEq.

The reason I ask is because I currently have 24 FW. I plan on making three squads of 8. I'm thinking of giving each team a commander with a markerlight. Unless I also buy a multi-tracker, then I can't have the team leader shoot the rifle and markerlight.

So I'm asking for mathematical evidence that would support one case or the other. I understand that the marker light will not hit everytime... however, with three teams firing.
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Old 10 Jul 2006, 05:27   #2 (permalink)
Kroot eat Tau
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

ok well im not a math genious and im here to tell u dont need to be either.

well u figure if u have 8 shots hitting on 4+, ull have 4 dice hit, to wound is 3+ so this would cause all to wound or just 3 out of 4 to wound.

then they make 3 saves which are 3+... they prolly will make all of them.

ok 8 rifles at bs4 score 6-7 hits as they now hit on 3+; 3+ to wound which out of 6-7 your gonna get 1-2 missing out of the group in all likelyhood.

they make 4-6 saves; if its 6 dice rolled 2 die, 5 dice rolled its 1 dead, if its 4 dice then no dead.

so looks like higher bs is much better. and no calculator needed i did this all off the top of my head, not hard at all.
 
Old 10 Jul 2006, 05:33   #3 (permalink)
Kroot Shaper
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Remember, one of the squads will have to start the markerlight "chain" so only two of your 8 man squads will need markerlights. Unless the light is networked, the squad containing the markerlight hit cannot use it to benefit.
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Old 10 Jul 2006, 08:04   #4 (permalink)
Shas'Ui
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Quick calculation using half, one third and two third rules.

8 shots at BS3 will give you 4 hits.
When wounding a T4 enemy, one third will fail to wound. Meaning roughly 1 out of your 4 hits will fail to wound.
A 3+ save enemy will fail one third of their saves. meaning, out of 3 wounds inflicted, one will fail to save (one out of three).

*Kroot eat Tau's head calculations are wrong here... according to his calculation, no 3+ save is failed. But then again, he didnt go on calcualtion there, he wend on personal experience that 3+ "allways" saves 3 wounds.


7 shots with BS4 will give you around two misses (one per third rule again).
wounding the T4 guys again will be the same again. Since you have, lets say 5 hits, you will get something like 2 failed wounds. Meaning 3 wounds.
Enemies with 3+ saves, will fail one in three saves, meaning one 3+ save model dies from 3 wounds inflicted.

* Kroot eat Tau indicated that if there is 4 wounds, no 3+ save will fail. This is wrong according to simple math. Still he is thinking of personal experience from his games when his opponent saves all 4 wounds.
If you look at the dice and think for a moment. Make the six sided dice (D6) a three sided dice (D3 = one in third rule will now come in effect)
1-2 will be 1
3-4 will be 2
5-6 will be 3

Since 3+ save models only fail on 1-2.... it means that they fail one out of three... not on in five as Kroot eat tau seemes to belive.

The result from head calculations are the same, if you dont use decicmals, when looking on how many will die from 8 BS3 shots and 7 BS4 shots.


Now lets do this with math:

8 shots with BS3 = 4 hits
4 hits = 2,67 wounds on enemies with Toughness 4
2,67 wounds = 0,89 dead enemies with 3+ saves


7 shots with BS4 = 4,67 hits
4,67 = 3,13 wounds on enemies with thoughness 4
3,13 wounds = 1,04 dead enemies with 3+ saves


As your can see, the result is close to the one in third, half, rule.
In the end, one T4 3+ save enemy will die from both set ups.

So, my advice when it comes to mathimaticaly speaking, take the BS4 7 Tau unit.

But since I am not a Theori Hammer player, I would take the unit I like the most.
And thats totaly up to you.



Yours Truly

Vash
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Old 10 Jul 2006, 08:17   #5 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Definately the +1 BS squad, statistics:

8 FW with 4+ means 4 hits (the odds of wounds per hit is identical in both cases so there is no need to work that out)

7 FW with 3+ means 4.666 hits.

it will definatly show more if you increae the squad to the full 12, remove some firewrriors from othe rsquads perhaps; their points would be far better spent in a BS 4 squad which can all benefit from an M-light hit together.
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Old 10 Jul 2006, 08:22   #6 (permalink)
Shas'El
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

My expansion:
Well, since to wounds and armor saves are identical, we can only consider the to-hit difference. Let´s assume that you have 3 squads with 8 men each.

Without markerlights:
This one is easy. total 12 hit.

With markerlights is two squads:

first squad gets 3.5 hits. (7 shots with BS3)

Second squad gets either (7 shots with BS3) 3.5 hits or (7 shots with BS 4) 4.66 hits. Since the markerlight has 50% chance of hitting, statistically both have 50% chance, so the squad will (statistically) end up with 0.5*3.5+0.5*4.66 hits= 4.08 hits. Third squad is same as second since markerlights won´t get BS mod.

Total for markerlighted squads is then 3.5+4.08+4.08 = 11.66 hits.

So not only do you get less hits, you also pay 40 points extra (2x Shas´Ui + 2x markerlight)





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Old 10 Jul 2006, 17:38   #7 (permalink)
Kroot eat Tau
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vash


*Kroot eat Tau's head calculations are wrong here... according to his calculation, no 3+ save is failed. But then again, he didnt go on calcualtion there, he wend on personal experience that 3+ "allways" saves 3 wounds.

* Kroot eat Tau indicated that if there is 4 wounds, no 3+ save will fail. This is wrong according to simple math. Still he is thinking of personal experience from his games when his opponent saves all 4 wounds.
If you look at the dice and think for a moment. Make the six sided dice (D6) a three sided dice (D3 = one in third rule will now come in effect)
1-2 will be 1
3-4 will be 2
5-6 will be 3
ok i read whole thing and we both agree on bs4 is better, but i was wrong only because instead of using the 1/3 for calculations, i used 2/6 which actually would give me differnt results; not hugely differnt but it will changes things for example.

if he had to make 3 saves at 3+ my system tells me that the opponent would need to roll 5 dice just to fail 1 save.( so this is why i said when only rolling 3 dice, he would make all his saves)

u see out of every 6 dice rolled 2 dice will be a 1 or a 2?

i dont mind being wrong and take no offence when sum1 tells me i am, but the thing was here i didnt go off personal experience i just went off a different way of calculations.
 
Old 10 Jul 2006, 17:46   #8 (permalink)
Shas'Saal
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

OK, so it looks like my plan is flawed...

The reason for this is that I was thinking of a new (maybe?) Tau tactic... mobile infantry. Not mech, but mobile. My idea was to use 3 squads of 8 (because I only have 24 FW). Two squads would be rifle and one squad carbines with gun drone support. The two rifle squads would have marker-lights and could a) support each other and b) enhance the pinning ability of the carbine squad.

The carbine squad would deploy slightly forward of the rifle squads so that all three could range on a target when it comes in. The carbine squad could then fall back to max range and use the rifle squad markerlights to help force a pin. If the unit is pinned, then the carbine squad can stay where it is and all three units will fire into it. If the enemy isn't pinned, then the carbine squad can fall back again.

Yes, the plan has issues and I may be working under faulty assumptions, but I'm working on it.

Tau Mobile Infantry... condsider it.
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Old 11 Jul 2006, 00:38   #9 (permalink)
Shas'Ui
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kroot eat Tau
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vash


*Kroot eat Tau's head calculations are wrong here... according to his calculation, no 3+ save is failed. But then again, he didnt go on calcualtion there, he wend on personal experience that 3+ "allways" saves 3 wounds.

* Kroot eat Tau indicated that if there is 4 wounds, no 3+ save will fail. This is wrong according to simple math. Still he is thinking of personal experience from his games when his opponent saves all 4 wounds.
If you look at the dice and think for a moment. Make the six sided dice (D6) a three sided dice (D3 = one in third rule will now come in effect)
1-2 will be 1
3-4 will be 2
5-6 will be 3
ok i read whole thing and we both agree on bs4 is better, but i was wrong only because instead of using the 1/3 for calculations, i used 2/6 which actually would give me differnt results; not hugely differnt but it will changes things for example.

if he had to make 3 saves at 3+ my system tells me that the opponent would need to roll 5 dice just to fail 1 save.( so this is why i said when only rolling 3 dice, he would make all his saves)

u see out of every 6 dice rolled 2 dice will be a 1 or a 2?

i dont mind being wrong and take no offence when sum1 tells me i am, but the thing was here i didnt go off personal experience i just went off a different way of calculations.
Oh I just assumed it was from personal experience. Since most of the times statistics is never right ( on single rolls).
Most of the time when I play witj my Sisters of battle, I usually end up saving way above avarage.


Yours Truly

Vash
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Old 11 Jul 2006, 01:36   #10 (permalink)
Kroot Shaper
 
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Default Re: Statistic help needed for rifle teams

Take the +1 BS, as others have said and done the math, it adds up to be better than just 8 rifles.
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