[crazedmongoose2003]

Well this is going to be as bitterly fought as the 1998 one. Thiso is shaping up to be one hell of a battle.


The cap: Labour needs 16 seats to win, these 16 includes some of the most high profiled, well defended Coalition seats around. As said by National minister for agriculture "we will fight them foxhole by foxhole".

The last week saw a brief Coalition surge in Western Australia, which includes two of these 16. So Labour will need to work extra hard in the east. That means La Trobe and the other 4 in Victoria, and Eden Monarro, Bennelong, Wentworth and another 3 in NSW. So, NSW and Victoria, Australia's two largest states, are once again shaping to be the two most bitter battlegrounds.

Exit poll for Newspoll/Galaxy: 52--48 Labour's favour

Exit poll for ACNeilsen/Herald: 57--43 Labour's favour

Labour needs a swing of I believe 6%? to defeat the incumbent coalition and around 53% of the popular vote I think....


The Tip:

My opinion? Labour's gonna win and make a net gain of some 20-25 seats. (Including most of the 16). Environment Minister Malcom Turbull will lose Wentworth. Eden Monarro, "Australia's Ohio" will be lost (ie. it's the seat that always goes to the victor), the PM John Howard himself will hold his home seat of Bennelong by the skin of his teeth.

[crazedmongoose2003]

Round 1: Eden Monarro

0.5% of votes counts, Libs leading with a 0.6% swing for them.....that's not good...

[crazedmongoose2003]

Round 2: Robertson

Jesus, currently a 6% swing to Labour in this long time safe Liberal seat...0.5% votes counted

[crazedmongoose2003]

Round 3: Bennelong

No swing what-so-ever


Craig Reucassel from the Chasers just simultaneously made 4 predictions, all of them contradictory. ;D

[crazedmongoose2003]

Round 3.1 Bennelong


HOLY CRAP 10.4% SWING TO LABOUR!


I think the entire neighbourhood just erupted...

[crazedmongoose2003]

Round 4: Bass and Badon


Um...I have no idea what's going on in these two, but they're the two vital seats in Tasmania, so more updates coming up, I heard a bunch of news but I was more screaming over the phone with my friend (whose currently at work) from the opening numbers in Bennelong.

[crazedmongoose2003]

COUNT SO FAR:


26 Labour vs. 32 Coalition


1 Indepent and 89 in doubt



Well, all hope for a landslide victory (or ruddslide as most labour supporters have predicted) has gone out the window it seems. It's going to be trench warfare, as ABC just said.


Current popular vote on two party preferred basis: 52 Labour to 48 Coalition

[crazedmongoose2003]

So the votes for the states of NSW, Victoria and Tasman is 51.8% Labour.


Western Australia (Stronger Coalition), Queensland and South Australia (Stronger Labour) are still to come in. Their polls have closed just now in Queensland and South Australia. In another few hours Western Australian booths will close.



Furthermore:

Macarthur is a strong swing to Labour

Isaac with a slight swing to Liberal

[crazedmongoose2003]

9.4%(?) swing to Labour in Parramatta.


North Sydney looks to hold for the Coalition.

[crazedmongoose2003]

Insert Quote
COUNT SO FAR

(according to ABC):

34 Labour vs. 50 Coalition


(according to Nine News)

12 Labour vs. 19 Coalition