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The Statistics of killing MEQs
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 09:25   #1 (permalink)
Kroot Shaper
 
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Default The Statistics of killing MEQs

The Statistics of Marine-Killing

Your normal guys carry flashlights, your elites can't even negate their armour, no matter how many saves you force, they pass them all. The guardsmans dilemma.
This won't be strategy or tactics, rather, a guide showing the STATISTICAL effectiveness of many guard weapons against T4, 3+ save grunts.

First, the BS3 lasgun:
Average wounds- 0.06
Chance of at least one wound- 0.06
Rapid firing:
Average wounds- 0.11
Chance of at least one wound- 0.11

And for our elite BS4 helguns:
Average wounds- 0.08
Chance of at least one wound- 0.08
Rapid firing:
Average wounds- 0.15
Chance of at least one wound- 0.14

Not good is it? Even if a full 10 man guard squad rapid fires, you'll only kill 1 marine - of a squad of 5-10!

Now some of the other weapons - the heavies! (Assume BS3)
Average wounds Chance of at least one wound
Autocannon 0.28 0.26
Lascannon 0.42 0.42
Missile launcher-(krak) 0.42 0.42
-(frag, hitting 1 and 2 partials) 0.17 0.15
-(frag, hitting 2 and 2 partials) 0.25 0.22
Mortar (hitting 1 and 2 partials) 0.17 0.15
Mortar (hitting 1 and 2 partials) 0.25 0.22
Heavy bolter 0.33 0.30

Multilaser 0.42 0.36

Grenade launcher-(krak) 0.09 0.09
-(frag, hitting 1 and 2 partials) 0.11 0.12
-(frag, hitting 2 and 2 partials) 0.17 0.17
Plasma gun 0.42 0.42
-Rapid fire 0.84 0.66
Melta gun 0.42 0.42

This means, that the most effective weapon is the rapid fire plasma gun, the most effective after that being the lascannon, missile launcher, melta gun and plasma gun single shot.
Of that category, the cheapest is the plasma/melta special weapon, or of the heavy weapons, the lascannon.
However, for your chimeras/sentinels? The cheapest effective weapon for both is the multilaser, despite allowing the save.
Additionally, as squad weapons, the heavy bolter is good on a budget, but the missile/plasma combi will prove the cheapest, most potent.
This also shows that in most cases, the grenade launcher does more damage as frag, while the missile works best on krak.

I hope this helps a Little, and sorry about all the numbers.
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 09:48   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

Something like this always crops up now and again... frankly, every Guard player should have a good knowledge of statistics, as with our amount of guns we tend to get the averages overall.
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 10:05   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

Statistics dont mean much, it's all the rigging of the dice rolls. Any IG player will know what to kill, when, hoe and what with.

Marines is easy, theres not alot of the. So what if most dont wound, youll still mass enough to kill a few. Heavy weapons and low AP is a great way for my catachan to kill ANYTHING. As wargamer said we get the averages anyway and we already know whats best and when.
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 18:38   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

ae you sure you got the numbers for the HB and autocannon right? they are far more effective than the plasma gun. also, when calculating this keep in mind that we normaly out number them 2 to 1 or better.
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 21:37   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

wat about dice rolls
like i suk at them so if i were playin you i would lose :P
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Old 17 Aug 2005, 22:59   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

thats all in your head. the dice rolls are only as bad as you make them. chances are that soon your rolls usualy break even each time.
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Old 18 Aug 2005, 08:10   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fingolfin
ae you sure you got the numbers for the HB and autocannon right? they are far more effective than the plasma gun. also, when calculating this keep in mind that we normaly out number them 2 to 1 or better.
Heavy bolters have 1/2 chance to hit * 2/3 chance to wound * 1/3 chance to fail save * 3 shots for average wounds which is 1/3 of a dead marine.
Autocannon has 1/2 chance to hit * 5/6 chance to wound * 1/3 chance to fail save * 2 shots for average wounds which is just under 1/3
Plasma gun has 1/2 chance to hit * 5/6 chance to wound no save which gives an average of slightly under 1/2.

Also to account for the numbers you can add the average like:
8 lasguns, 1 plasma, 1 lascannon
0.44 + 0.42 + 0.42
= 1.28 dead marines from 1 squads firing at 12 - 24" range

I'm sorry if its been done before, but I found quite a few of the numbers suprised me, so I thought they might be of some help.
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Old 18 Aug 2005, 10:00   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

Still stats dont do much but show us what should happen, very rarely does it happen.
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Old 18 Aug 2005, 10:12   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

Quote:
Originally Posted by -=Fă????
Still stats dont do much but show us what should happen, very rarely does it happen.
I must say I agree, I've never had a game come close to the average :-\
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Old 23 Aug 2005, 09:03   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Statistics of killing MEQs

charlie: you've done good work here despite others criticisms I'm sure some players will take good note of this.

In theory don't guard outnumber SMurfs 5=1 & even in the fluff they outnumber them 10=1.
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