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Twin-Linked Blast Statistics
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Old 28 Nov 2008, 04:54   #1 (permalink)
Kroot Shaper
 
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Default Twin-Linked Blast Statistics

Without Re-Roll Re-Roll all Re-roll only
but Hits Scatter 7" and
over

Chance to Hit 33% 56% 46%

Chance of Scatter 7" 39% 26% 15%
and over
Chance of Scatter 6" 9% 6% 13%

Chance of Scatter 5" 7% 5% 10%

Chance of Scatter 4" 6% 4% 7%

Chance of Scatter 3" 4% 2% 5%

Chance of Scatter 2" 2% 1% 3%



*all figures are approximate and ballistic skill has been left unaccounted for

Re-roll only Scatter Re-roll only Scatter Re-roll only
6" and over 5" and over Scatter 4"
and over


Chance to Hit 49% 52% 54%

Chance of Scatter 7" 19% 22% 24%
and over
Chance of Scatter 6" 5% 5% 6%

Chance of Scatter 5" 11% 4% 5%

Chance of Scatter 4" 8% 9% 3%

Chance of Scatter 3" 5% 6% 6%

Chance of Scatter 2" 2% 2% 2%


The theory behind this chart is simple. The faces of scatter dice are 2/3 scatter, 1/3 hit. As most players shoot with the intention of hitting, the goal would be to find the appropriate margin in which to decide to re-roll their scattered blast. Of course most blast scatters are situational and its nearly impossible to guess the direction in which your shot will land. This information should only serve as a portion of the decision making process. The initial calculations were based on the fact that only 2/3 of each distance would be accounted for as the other 1/3 would hit directly and therefore would disregard the distance entirely. And so we are left with x/36 (36 being the amount of combinations and x being the numeral minus one, as you cannot roll lower than two; consulting an addition chart isn't completely necessary since common sense will dictate the probability of each combination) times the chance that the dice will actually scatter, 2/3. The chance of scattering 7" and over was determined by using 21 as x, being that 21 is the total of all such combinations on the 2D6. Obviously, for more specific, higher numbers the percentages for lower numbers can be reciprocal (the chance of rolling a 2 is the same as rolling a 12; same goes for 3 and 11, 4 and 10, etc.) For non-twin-linked weapons the first column is the only one that applies. However, don't let these numbers scare you. Your ballistic skill plays a vital role in reducing the magnitude by which you miss your target. I chose to lump the chances of scattering 7" and over into one group because I created this chart initially for my Carnifex with a twin-linked barbed strangler. Poor guy has six eyes and can shoot no better than a guardsman.

Now for the fun part. Re-rolling all but hits was another simple calculation. Take your previous calculation and reduce it by the 1/3 that'd turn into hits. To be more specific, 2/3 of the first roll would be re-rolled and the second roll would have the same probability of scattering the corresponding distance. This leaves us with the equation 2/3(2x/108). However, this doesn't apply to hits, which are simply 1/3 plus 1/3 of the remaining 2/3. Notice this significantly increases the chance of hitting on the spot, which isn't entirely necessary when taking ballistic skill into account (not to mention the increased chance of scattering over 7". However, a brilliant use of this information would be to pick a target closer by in hopes of scattering behind far behind it. Eh, maybe less than brilliant, but a fun thought in any case. When it comes to re-rolling scatter dice with a 2D6 roll over a certain distance you have to first take into account the probability that you'll get what you want initially and then add that to the calculation of getting it on the re-roll. For the third column (over 7") you take the initial probability (taking into account that you're only keeping 2/3 of the rolls AND only those that already fall under the category you're shooting for) and add it to that same initial probability times the chance that you'll be re-rolling (in this case 7/18 since that's 2/3 of 21/36). And so you're left with the equation 2/3(x/36) + [(2/3z)2/3(x/36)] where as z is the total of the probabilities of getting over the numeral you're shooting for. I notice this leaves you with some missing percentages, but we can attribute that to estimation and the chance the dice will simply explode.

So when should you re-roll? As I stated earlier, it's entirely situational, BUT in my opinion it'd be prudent to select scattering 6" as your margin for re-rolls. There's about 75% chance the blast will be within 2" of your target (so long as your ballistic skill is at least 3). The issue is that if you scatter 2 inches you can't legitimately score a hit on a model that has a 1" base as its radius is half an inch and the radius of a small blast is 1.5" (luckily, barbed stranglers use large blasts, ahaha). However, if you're targeting a single guy with a blast weapon, chances are he's a rather hefty brute with a larger than normal base. To be conclusive, its probably best not to choose a policy by which to re-roll the dice, but if the situation calls for a tough decision, let the statistics present their case before banking on a 'sure thing'.
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Old 28 Nov 2008, 05:41   #2 (permalink)
Shas'O
 
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Default Re: Twin-Linked Blast Statistics

I thought TL template weapons just got re-rolls to wound. ???

IIRC...
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Old 28 Nov 2008, 07:33   #3 (permalink)
Kroot Shaper
 
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Default Re: Twin-Linked Blast Statistics

I believe that only applies to flame template weapons and I pray you are incorrect :-P

AHA! page 30 states under Blast weapons and re-rolls: "If a model has the ability to re-roll its rolls to hit and chooses to do so after firing a blast weapon, the player must re-roll both the scatter dice and the 2D6". It is my current thought that 'template' weapons describe only those that have a range of 'template'.

By the way, I adore your name. Mine would have been BeanDelphiki had I not so recently decided to rename my Tyranid force after the AI in Neuromancer.
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Old 28 Nov 2008, 14:54   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Twin-Linked Blast Statistics

Very good post; +1 karma given
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Old 28 Nov 2008, 20:34   #5 (permalink)
Shas'O
 
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Default Re: Twin-Linked Blast Statistics

Hmm, now I wish we (Tau) had some twin-linked blast weapons. :P

It still helps in the tactical sense though, as well as others. Thank you!



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