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Old 08 Oct 2008, 05:31   #1 (permalink)
shasocastris
Shas'Vre
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: on Dal'yth
Posts: 1,326
Default Intense Mathhammer: 5th ed style

So, I really shouldn't be up this late on Tau Online, but after a rough physics exam, I need something to do to take my mind of things.

Anyway, yesterday, while trying to make a 1500 point army list, I instead ended up doing the most intense bout of mathhammer I've ever done. It was a lot of fun, but I found a lot of scary things about my army lists that I hadn't realized, which is going to cause me to rethink a lot of things and/or play more to see how this all plays out practically.

So, the first thing I did was analyze my favorite unit, my deathrains. At 106 points, they put out 4 str 7 shots that hit 8/9 of the time (yay target locks). Now, normally they target rhinos, but with the new rules for killing vehicles in 5th edition, I had to see how they fared. The first time I do the mathhammer, I'll walk through each step in the thought process, but after that, I won't but the formula will be the same, so you guys should be able to bear with me.

First off, we have 4 shots that are at TL BS 4, and hit 8/9 of the time. Thus we get:

4 * 8/9

As I'm assuming the average scenario against a rhino, aka smoke launchers, we have to bring in the 1/2 chance of them ignoring our hit.

4 * 8/9 * 1/2

Now we'll go straight for the kill. 1/3 chance to pen. 1/3 chance to kill.

4 * 8/9 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 16/81

16/81 or 19.75%

Wow... In 4th edition, deathrains were definitely a lot more lethal. Now, of course killing a rhino is preferable, but immobilization can also help, so I'll include that as well.

4 * 8/9 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 18.25/81

That's ~22.5%.

Somewhat higher. The plus 1/6 * 1/6 is for glances, and this is the format I'll be using for the rest of the article, FYI.

Now, something I found out doing this (other than that missile pods are feeling neglected in 5th edition) has to deal with Ork trukks.

4 * 8/9 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 8/81 (9.87%)

An Ork trukk in cover has TWICE the survivability against this crisis team than a rhino. Of course, the extra 1/3 is for their stupid special rule, and if you include that on a 3-4 they still die (just Kareen! in a random direction), you get 16/81, equal to a rhino. An Ork trukk is EQUAL IN SURVIVABILITY to a space marine rhino. I'm not quite sure who should be insulted here, but hot damn... On the plus side, Orks rarely take to cover, so we have a good chance to double the chances of blowing them to hell, but still...

Oh, as a side note, I'm neglecting markerlights purposefully as they are better suited for increasing the BS of fire warriors for attacking enemy infantry. Plus, my army normally doesn't use them, and it adds far too many factors to include here :P

For completion, I'm going to include this deathrain unit against the new falcon, which is what they were originally designed for

4 * 8/9 * 1/2 * 1/6 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 8/243 (3.3%)

Ooh boy... Luckily, we've got railguns, so lets take a look at those.

[hr]

First off, railguns target the enemy heavy armour, so lets look at a railgun shooting at AV 14 and 13, both in cover. (As an aside, just double all chances of killing if you're shooting at a tank outside of cover. I know most of you got that, but just in case

Railgun (hammerhead) vs AV 14
1 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/12
(extra + 1/6 * 1/6 is for the chance of a glancing hit destroying the vehicle, thanks to AP 1)

So, for the record, a railgun has a 8.33% chance of killing AV 14 in cover. After doing these statistics, I start wondering how things die at all, and then I remember it's a dice game...

HH railgun vs AV 13

1 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/9

Somewhat better, but still ridiculous. I was hoping for something a little better, but that cover save is definitely rough.

For completion, I'll include broadside railguns, and I'm assuming BS 3 because of A.S.S. usage

Broadside vs AV 14
1 * 3/4 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 13/128

Slightly better than a Hammerhead at ~10.2%

at AV 13

1 * 3/4 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 35/256

which comes to ~13.7% So a broadside is marginally better at killing tanks than a hammerhead, but we already knew that. However, let's continue to piranhas.

[hr]

In 5th edition, melta weapons at half range became the undisputed best tank killers in the game. Let's see just how well they do.

Piranha (with targeting array) at 6" vs AV 14

1 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 21/36 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/8

This is 12.5% Which is interesting, because it's only 2% points better than a broadside, and requires to be very close. What one should keep in mind, however, is that the close range required and the true LOS rules means that it is far more likely to negate the cover save, thus doubling the effectiveness of the attack, which is awesome.

At AV 13, we get

1 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 26/36 * 1/2 + 1/6 * 1/6 = 5/36

At 13.88%, melta weapons come out on top. Something to consider here, however, is that against Tau, melta weapons are generally far more effective, as they are inside the disruption pod's minimum range, and this effectiveness is doubled. That's a very scary prospect for us, so watch out.

[hr]

Lastly, we have our seeker missiles. They are very powerful weapons, capable of doing a great many things. Let's see how well they deal with rhinos.

1 * 5/6 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 5/72

This is 6.94%, which is okay at 10 points a missile. Three are better than missile pods, but not reusable, so it's a fair trade off. Of course, sticking seeker missiles on piranhas and getting the sides of predators is definitely worth the shot.

[hr]

I'll stop here for now, as I'm about to fall asleep. I'll post more up sometime soon.

Cheers!


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